Adam Turnquist on Comparing 2024-25 to Previous Market Cycles (Ep. 19)

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In this latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave catches up with Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial. Adam shares his research comparing 2024 to previous bull market years, why 2025 could be very similar to 1995, the performance gap between the Magnificent 7 stocks and other sectors, and how to differentiate a short-term pullback from a longer-term bearish market phase. Recorded 1/14/25.

You can learn more about Adam and his work at www.lpl.com/ and follow on him on X at x.com/adam_turnquist.

0:00 Introduction
3:58 High level assessment of market conditions in Jan 2025
5:22 Differentiating short-term weakness from long-term bearish trends
7:00 Comparing 2024 to previous bull market trends
9:34 Why 2025 could be similar to 1996 and 1959
14:14 Potential impact of stronger US Dollar and higher interest rates
15:51 Will the Magnificent 7 continue their leadership role?
17:44 Equal weighted SPX and breadth deterioration
19:04 The chronic underperformance of small caps
19:59 Still waiting for strength from defensive sectors
21:19 Key signs that could suggest a long-term market decline
22:53 Inflationary pressures and potential impact in 2025
24:16 Positioning in Q1 2025
25:53 Final comments

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